Fire AggroTier 1
at 20241229 RL
decks
3
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
11-6-1
overall winrate
63.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.3%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
56.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1386
· range 1062–1486
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1016
Q1 1227
Q3 1382
1694
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 68.7% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
